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The political weaknesses of candidate Biden have remained intact during the campaign strategy, seeking permanent oxygenation of the electoral political capital of Obama / Clinton, trails that do not necessarily imply beneficial electoral dividends.
Dr. Juan Carlos Barrón (CISAN/UNAM)**
Dr. Francisco Javier Jiménez Ruíz (FCPYS/UNAM)***
President Trump projects temperance and energy for a second term compared to what Biden appears to be, although the pandemic has taken a toll on the president's charisma. This is also evidenced by the way in which Trump has reacted to contracting COVID-19 .
Despite the proximity of ages, it has been noted in this final stretch errors and forgetfulness of Biden show him senile in front of Trump.
The Trump administration has been a broken mirror inside and outside their country, especially for voters, in their management of the pandemic crisis in the US Biden and Harris have so far sought to capitalize on the mistakes of the Presidency, without crediting a credible alternative to catastrophe and the potential effectiveness of its public health reform plan.
President Trump infected by COVID-19 within a universe of the more than 35 million cases reported around the world, shows a government whose head is a victim of his own irresponsibility, and ironically, a vulnerable President due to his age / obesity and at the same time a survivor, without apparent sequelae, against the king of viruses.
Scandals, fears and defections predominate in Republican campaigns for the US Senate. With the precedent of 2018 Democratic control of the House of Representatives, national polls record a Biden / Harris-prone turf battle for majority control of the federal legislature in November 2020, in which Democrats could eventually snatch a majority in the Senate Chamber.
More than a narrative of its own, the Biden campaign has privileged it to be the still unbridled slope of the pandemic catastrophe and the failures of the Trump administration. the predominant narrative in the Democratic campaign.
Evidencing for his strategy the presidential debate as a meaningless scene, in which Biden could have been imposed only because of his more equanimous position and a predominantly anti-Trump national imaginary, the Republican candidate's tactic managed to dilute Biden's agenda / messages, putting a Test their good sense, intimidate their reactions with your combativeness. Biden reacted with integrity, coherence but responding to provocations, contributing to the discredit of the national event.
President Trump partially positioned his contrasts without articulating a government plan against Biden; in turn, he showed that the Democratic candidate, the moderator of the debate and the rules of the competition game were not the object of respect for him.
Both candidates are sustained by a strategy in which they practically address their constituencies, disdaining that of their opponent.
Unlike the partisan primaries during the first half of 2020, since August 2020, private and citizen donations to the Trump presidential campaign have been substantially reduced, both in the flow of resources invested in television spots and in the official statements of campaign expenses of the candidates. Vice Presidential Candidate Harris Credited For Achieving This Democrat-Friendly Differentiation.
The increasing flow of infections and deaths in the United States and its impact on more and more American voters has damaged the image and credibility of the Trump administration.
Despite Biden's progress in winning over national minority voters and by age / employability profiles that gave Trump the win in 2016, the Democratic campaign is far from generating the resonance and enthusiasm that propaganda and enthusiasm for vote generated by President Trump on his partisan and loyalist bases.
Potential conservative voters in the United States have held Trump relatively ahead of Biden in handling the economy, despite the severe recession and the damaging consequences of the pandemic. Polls praise his economic nationalism and his ability to manage the national economy as a business with acceptable
results, but especially for having managed to reverse the spiral of unemployment registered in the March-April period (around 20 million) and the recovery of more than 9 million jobs in the period May-July 2020, in which two fiscal stimulus packages approved by Congress for COVID-19 were key, which sought to directly impact middle-class families.
The Biden / Harris duo got bogged down in the inertia / script of blame and responsibilities of Trump and his government for omissions and handling of the pandemic crisis, but they have not been able to turn this event into a major constitutional crisis nor have they convinced the average electorate that they have a more plausible plan than Trump's.
The discredit of the Trump administration for the media scandal related to the non-payment of federal taxes in his career as President and his erratic conduct in the face of this, has been a slab of discredit, calling into question the reliability and justice of the tax and contribution system.
K. Harris has been a progressively important number two contender in Biden's campaign. However, it has been ineffective in inoculating the political weaknesses and lack of charisma of the Democrat and in the vice presidential debate, Pence managed to put her on the defensive, neutralize her media ferocity and her ability to contrast the projects of Trump's Presidency and the eventual by Biden.
Despite the social and political upheaval that the contagion of coronavirus is causing in society, which now shocks its contagion to the very ruling elite on Capitol Hill and in the White House: former adviser to President Trump, Kellyanne Conway and Chris Christie expressed that they have the virus. The former New Jersey governor tweeted that he was admitted to the hospital due to his history of asthma. Utah Sen. Mike Lee and North Carolina Sen. Thom Tillis also tested positive. Now Wisconsin Senator Ron Johnson and close associates to the President have contracted the virus.
Trump will not give up in his efforts to appoint a new judge in the Supreme Court of Justice of the Nation, which ties the tactical threads that would give him victory beyond the sphere of the Electoral College itself.
Knowing the context that Biden / Harris prepare an army of lawyers to litigate, if necessary, the defense of the victory that would be taken from them, it is important to note that in the field of polls the differentials between the two candidates have been dramatically narrowing: Despite the fact that Trump has not been able to exceed 50% of the national approval rating for months, this device can be detrimental so that Democrats can trust his triumph.
Trump persists that the electoral system is unreliable and maintains his axiom of electoral fraud, discrediting the vote by messenger that, even in the event of an eventual closed or adverse result in the Electoral College, he may gain control of victory on his own terms until January 2021.
The political weaknesses of candidate Biden have remained intact during the campaign strategy, seeking permanent oxygenation of the electoral political capital of Obama / Clinton, trails that do not necessarily imply beneficial electoral dividends.
In the competitive and decisive states in the presidential elections (Michigan, North Carolina, New York, Florida, Pennsylvania, Nevada, Wisconsin, Arizona), Biden maintains relatively consistent leads in the polls since last July, but in October, perhaps by the presidential / vice-presidential debates and the circumstance of COVID-19 contracted by the presidential family, has entered a sphere of greater volatility and uncertainty.
The Latino, Cuban American, Jewish and eventually Catholic communities, particularly courted by the Republican campaign, can encrypt the relative favorable position that Trump needs at the closing moment of the presidential election.
Biden cultivates his campaign especially in states where violence and anti-racial mobilization is latent, with potential voters of black roots and seeks to reap the dissatisfaction of massive unemployment largely caused by the pandemic crisis,
in addition to cultivating white Americans who have not seen benefits with economic policy in the Trump era.
It is important to emphasize that it has not been entirely favorable to Biden's campaign that the presence of the former presidential families Obama and Clinton have had a greater influence on his campaign than he himself.
The average base of voters loyal to the Trump campaign, at least on social media, shows that it arouses more enthusiasm, resonance and combativeness among its constituencies compared to Joe Biden's.
The necessarily medial nature of the campaign due to the effect of COVID-19, the absence of physical contact with voters and the inherent demobilization, have ultimately made Biden's campaign less powerful, who in turn has avoided exposing himself to confrontation with Trump and even personal wear and tear that would have shown him weak and bewildered.
Biden's strategy has progressively worked with youth-focused constituencies in urban cities and particularly with older adults.
Not only due to the pandemic circumstance, we are facing presidential campaigns and candidates that have brought the political dimension of a pseudo event to its maximum virtual reality (contribution of Donald Boorstin): while Biden decided not to appear on the scene or oppose frontal combat with positions, narratives and genuine campaign acts, Trump reissued the platform of 2016 in 2020, undermining all competition within the Republican party, taking to the extreme the heroic cult of the supremacist patriotic personality, putting to the extreme limit the rules of democratic power and basic institutions and systemic that have governed the tradition of who wins the Presidency.
In the end, the Democratic central challenge has been to capitalize on the popularity of the Obama presidency, disarm the narrative of Trumpian discord, and reap the mistakes that Trump and his administration have made to confront the pandemic; Ironically, with a twist that can eventually be strategically decisive, Trump presents himself as a candidate who despite having contracted the COVID-19 virus, presumes intact to govern a second term. The sui generis presence of Obama in the Democratic campaign, how far was candidate Biden's confession of weaknesses to achieve victory?
The effectiveness of Biden's jealously low-key campaign has become more apparent in the historically most competitive states, where Pennsylvania, Minnesota, Arizona and Wisconsin are confirmed as skeins of their electoral competitiveness.
Trump has carried out a kind of double national campaign in parallel: the one that unleashes the most unpredictable media and political storms with his combative / temperamental personality and his radical political twitter, and the pragmatic exercise of power without concessions to the Democratic flank, betting on the other hand, to his slight advantage that the voters grant him in the management of the economy in the face of the governmental disaster that they attribute to him in the pandemic and, on the other hand, to the patriotic evangelical supremacist mantle of his campaign, which is betting on the confirmation of the Judge Amy Barret, as an enclave of questioning the profession of faith of the Democrats and an opportunity for rapprochement / conquest of Christian and Catholic voters and finally, by positioning China as the author of the coronavirus and global enemy of greatness and the future American Nation.
Biden / Harris devised an effective campaign strategy to evade as far as possible an open, frontal and direct confrontation with Trump. For the Biden / Harris / Obama strategy team, Trump has become predictable and defeated as a candidate, although the Republican has cultivated his strategy in the niches of control of the electoral process as President.
The DISENSUM 3.0 Analysis concludes that D. Trump obtains a 51% Cross-Impact Index for effectiveness factors in his campaign strategy to achieve the presidential victory, compared to the 49% strategic Index for J.Biden. As the polls indicate, Biden would win the popular vote, but in at least three states the chance of the faithful of the triumph follows, since North Carolina, Ohio, but especially Florida, could confirm the 276 voters he needs for the President.
As Biden's campaign envisioned by choosing a vice presidential running mate with a fierce litigant track record, consequent legal battles and possible post-election conflicts of dimensions eventually greater than those of the 2000 presidential election are anticipated, while the Trump campaign It is willing to preserve its control of the Presidency beyond the electoral result, putting the Electoral College in check if necessary, objecting to the invalidity of decisive state scrutinies and imposing itself on Biden by design of the Supreme Court of Justice of the Nation.
