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Mexico expects job growth in 2019

According to a survey, 14% of contractors are expected to increase their workforce in early 2019

The oil crisis affected the job creation in southern Mexico from 2012 to 2018 – Photo: Juan Carlos Reyes García /EL UNIVERSAL
30/12/2018 |14:14
Rubén Migueles
Reportero de la sección CarteraVer perfil

During the previous presidential term, 44,588 formal jobs were lost in Campeche and Tabasco , mainly because of the oil crisis taking place in the Gulf region; nevertheless, the employment expectations are looking positive in both states during 2019's first trimester.

From November 2012 to November 2018, 4.1 million jobs were created nationwide, a higher number than the ones registered in the two previous presidencies, nevertheless, this positive behavior wasn't homogeneous in every region.

In Campeche and Tabasco they not only didn't create any jobs, but they also destroyed the existing ones. In Campeche , 24,688 formal jobs were lost in the last six years, meanwhile, they eliminated 19,900 jobs positions in Tabasco .

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Despite the poor performance in the last years, the recruitment expectations in both states are above the national average during 2019's first trimester, according to ManpowerGroup 's Recruitment Expectations Survey.

Meanwhile, the national trend indicates that 14% of contractors are expected to increase their workforce . In Campeche, the tendency is of 28%, and 19% in Tabasco .

On the other hand, in the last six years, there were regions where the creation of formal jobs was below the numbers from the previous administration. This is the case of Veracruz , where the number of workers affiliated to the IMSS increased by 4,160 workers, a lower number than the 125,811 jobs created from November 2006 to November 2012.

This lesser dynamism was, in part, a result of the downfall of oil production.

In contrast with Campeche and Tabasco , the recruitment expectations during 2019's first trimester are below the national average, with a rate between 8% and 13% in northern Veracruz , and 7% in the south.

Other regions with a lower job creation rate during Enrique Peña Nieto 's presidency than during Felipe Calderón 's are: Chiapas , where 10,586 jobs were created, 77.1% less than the jobs created from 2006 to 2012; Morelos , where 17,425 jobs were created, 43.8% less; Durango , 33,979 jobs, which is 15.4% less, and Oaxaca , where 32,243 jobs were created, 0.9% less than during the previous presidency.

In Chiapas, Durango, and Oaxaca, the recruitment trend for 2019 is below the national average, between 6% and 13%. In Morelos , the trend is similar to the national average, with 14% of the contractors expecting to hire new employees from January to March 2019.

On the contrary, the states where the number of workers affiliated to the IMSS increased during the previous administration are Mexico City with 677,116 new jobs; Jalisco , 433,466 jobs; Nuevo León, 352,172 new jobs; the State of Mexico with 314,610 jobs, and Guanajuato , 295,237 new jobs.

These five states concentrate almost half, 49.8%, of the jobs created during the last six years.

The ManpowerGroup estimates that although the recruitment expectations are high for 2019's first trimester, with the creation of 350,000 formal jobs, it's important to consider that during the first semester, fewer jobs are created during the beginning of a presidency ; therefore, job creation could reach 300,000 formal job s only.

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