Two experts from the CEU San Pablo Universty explain to EL UNIVERSAL to what degree the negotiation expectations regarding Brexit have changed. Allan Tatham , Professor of EU Law and International Relations, outlines the British perspective. Javier Porras , a researcher at the University Institute for European Studies, offers the continental view.
Will the United Kingdom be able to maintain its bet for a hard Brexit, with border closure and commercial disruption ?
Tatham: The government's instability will affect the British position. The UK will start negotiating with the EU at disadvantage and unable to secure internal consensus. Theresa May will have to agree to a government with the Democratic Unionist Party of Northern Ireland . They voted against Brexit because they are Ireland 's neighbor. So, it is possible that the Unionists push May to a softer Brexit . This would cause problems to the Conservative Party.
Will Europe change strategies?
Porras: Brussels will have to negotiate with an unstable country , which can suddenly change its mind on important issues depending on its internal balances . The EU is going to defend its interests, of course, but the future of millions of British and European citizens who need good relations between the two parties is at stake. The EU also does not forget that many British people voted against Brexit and that at some point they may want to rejoin.
How will the negotiating teams prepare for the new situation?
Tatham: The EU has much more advantage . Its strategy is public and Michel Barnier , its chief negotiator, has been preparing a team with the best technicians for a year. On the contrary, Britain's position is not clear, the UK has spent many years without negotiating accords of such complexity. They do not have the personnel to handle this divorce, nor do they have it to create laws in the United Kingdom which replace the European laws. They are putting law and trade specialists around the world on files to achieve it. But these sudden changes weaken even more its position.
Can this British weakness unbalance the EU and arise differences between soft countries and others which want to take advantage of this bad time for London?
Porras: Each country has a position according to its political or commercial relations with London. Of course, there is disagreement in the EU and will grow if the British position is unstable, but the European Commission must impose the common interest.
Tatham: The United Kingdom has underestimated the technical complexity of the negotiations, and that is serious. Prices for agricultural products have already risen 15% in the country, and Brexit has not started yet. After the Manchester and London attacks , many British citizens have begun to wonder what will happen when their police no longer work with Europol's European intelligence . There are many things that the government has not explained to the citizens.
Porras: From the perspective of other EU countries, the lack of information of the British government to its citizens on the consequences of Brexit seems scandalous. For any country, be it France, Germany or Spain , it would be a major effort to withdraw from European treaties and build laws to replace them in such a short time. That is why Europe looks with bewilderment how London gets into more and more problems.
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