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The possibility that Donald Trump becomes the Republican candidate for the US presidency will be an an exchange rate volatility factor.
"The US election will bring volatility, not only for the Mexican peso, because the risk of the measures announced by Trump affect Mexico and the rest of the world," said Carlos Serrano, chief economist of BBVA Bancomer.
At a press conference, Serrano explained that if Trump won the US presidency, he would have little leeway to block remittances or apply tariffs on exports.
"It would have to be approved by Congress and we find it difficult to think that it would support such a tax policy," he added.
About the current exchange rate Serrano said it does not reflect the country's macroeconomic conditions.
"The exchange rate is undervalued. We think there is room for appreciation and that it could end the year at 17.4 pesos per dollar and drop below 17 pesos by 2017," the economist explained.
He added that the protectionist measures proposed by Donald Trump would force the United States out of the North America Free Trade Agreement and the World Trade Organization.
"It would isolate itself from the rest of the global economy," Serrano said.
